As Canada trade war rages, could Maine electricity prices spike?
Potential Electricity Embargo Poses Threat to Maine's Northern Communities
Maine's northernmost electricity customers could face higher bills or power shortages as Canadian provinces consider restricting energy exports to the United States in response to escalating American tariffs.
The threat marks a dramatic escalation in the trade dispute between the two countries. President Donald Trump imposed new 50 percent tariffs on approximately $20 billion in Canadian goods last weekend, prompting Canadian officials to explore unprecedented measures.
Ontario Premier Doug Ford told The Associated Press this week that he would consider cutting electricity service to 1.5 million American homes and businesses. Ford, who previously added a 25 percent export tax on electricity last year, said he would take "whatever it takes" to respond to the tariffs.
Quebec Premier Christine Fréchette told reporters that her province would "not exclude anything" as the two countries entered what she described as a new phase of their trade conflict. Quebec currently exports enough electricity to power more than 2 million American homes annually, including significant volumes flowing through the recently activated NECEC transmission corridor that runs through northwestern Maine.
New Brunswick's approach has been more measured. Premier Susan Holt told the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation that cutting electricity would be "an extremely serious line to cross," but she acknowledged the supply could serve as leverage at the negotiating table.
The situation is particularly acute for roughly 58,000 customers in northern Maine served by Versant Power's Maine Public District. Those customers receive their entire electricity supply from generators in New Brunswick.
"The biggest issue really is for northern Maine—they are connected exclusively to New Brunswick," said Philip Bartlett, chair of the Maine Public Utilities Commission. He noted, however, that Maine has maintained strong relationships with its Canadian neighbors.
The New England power grid connects to Quebec at three points and to New Brunswick at two. Maine's electricity providers—Central Maine Power and Versant—currently source roughly a quarter of their supply from Canadian generators, primarily New Brunswick.
Mary Cate Colpietro, a spokesperson for ISO New England, which manages the regional grid, said any reduction in Canadian electricity would likely translate to higher wholesale market prices.
If costs do rise for consumers, the impact probably would not appear until early next year, when new electricity supply contracts take effect. Current pricing is locked in by existing agreements.
Prime Minister Mark Carney announced matching Canadian tariffs on American steel, dairy products, appliances, and farm equipment Tuesday. Canada is also imposing 25 percent tariffs on fisheries products, including lobster, and matching American duties on pulp and paper—one of the most interconnected industries between Maine and its northern neighbor.
Carney withdrew from trade negotiations with the United States on Friday, citing last-minute American demands for a veto over Canadian trade agreements, restrictions on heavy-duty trucks, and weakened protections for French language use in Canada.
Vice President JD Vance told a crowd in Maine on Monday that negotiations with Canada were continuing. However, Trump has continued to publicly attack Ford and Carney while threatening additional 50 percent tariffs on Canadian automobiles and steel.
The trade dispute has become a campaign issue in Maine's gubernatorial race. Republican nominee Bobby Charles, who previously supported tariffs, said Monday he opposed Trump's latest escalation. Democratic nominee Hannah Pingree called the potential loss of Canadian electricity "unthinkable" and criticized Charles's change in position as politically convenient.
