Does Troy Jackson stand a chance against Susan Collins? | Opinion
By Maine News Now Staff
With roughly two months until Election Day, Maine’s U.S. Senate race has settled into a contest between incumbent Republican Susan Collins and Democratic challenger Troy Jackson, a logger and longtime state lawmaker from Allagash.
Jackson was elevated to the Democratic nomination in late July after Graham Platner, the party’s originally elected nominee, ended his campaign. Platner had drawn national attention earlier in the cycle before withdrawing amid controversy.
Since then, the Jackson campaign has been largely quiet. The only sustained public message has been a series of denials regarding a four-decades-old police report that alleged he pushed a former domestic partner. Jackson has rejected the allegations. Associates say the campaign plans to formally launch its general election effort after Labor Day, the traditional kickoff to the fall political season.
A Fox News poll released this month gave Jackson a narrow two-point lead over Collins, 48 percent to 46 percent. Former New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio, speaking on “Hannity,” described Jackson as “your worst nightmare politically,” citing his background as a Catholic lumberjack from northern Maine with a record of advocating for working people.
Pollsters caution that August surveys are unreliable predictors, as voters are frequently disengaged during the late summer. Some analysts view the current numbers as Jackson’s ceiling rather than his floor.
Collins, first elected to the Senate in 1996, has built a reputation over five terms as one of the chamber’s more independent Republicans. She broke with her party on several high-profile issues during the Trump administration, including a vote to impeach the president in his first term. Critics on the right argue those breaks have been insufficient and largely symbolic, while supporters say her willingness to distance herself from the national party brand has been central to her durability in a state where the Republican label has grown increasingly difficult to carry.
The senator launched her “All of Maine” bus tour this week, a retail campaign style she has leaned on heavily as her standing with some traditional Republican voters has weakened. The tour follows years of criticism, including from Platner during the Democratic primary, over her limited public engagement and infrequent town hall meetings.
Jackson, for his part, released his first biographical television advertisement, emphasizing his working-class roots and decades in the Maine Legislature. He has been a fixture in Augusta since 2002, representing the St. John Valley and later serving as Senate minority leader. He first gained broader attention as a vocal opponent of various governor-era policy proposals, often invoking the interests of loggers, paper mill workers and tradespeople.
The central question of the race, political observers say, is whether Jackson can convert a compelling personal narrative and a unifying economic message into a winning coalition against a well-funded incumbent with deep institutional ties. His path requires not only energizing his own base but also persuading moderate and independent voters that his values and priorities align with theirs.
Collins, meanwhile, is betting that nearly 30 years of constituent service, committee influence and federal dollars delivered to Maine projects will outweigh the headwinds facing her party nationally and the frustration of voters unhappy with the direction of the country.
With the general election campaign effectively beginning in September, both sides face a compressed timeline. Jackson must introduce himself to voters who only weeks ago expected to be voting for Platner, while Collins must defend a record that includes both bipartisan legislative achievements and votes that have angered partisans on both sides.
Whether the race becomes a vigorous, issue-driven contest or fades into predictability may hinge on how aggressively Jackson competes in the coming weeks. For now, the calendar, and the voters, are waiting.
