Fox News Power Rankings: The top races to watch as 36 states choose their next governor

As the 2026 midterm election season unfolds, the contest for the nation’s governors’ offices is emerging as a central battleground. With more voters set to choose a governor than a U.S. senator this cycle, the outcome will determine which party holds the majority of the 50 governorships—a prize that has leaned Republican since 2010, when the GOP last held more than half the seats. Democrats currently occupy 24 mansions, leaving the balance of power just two states away from a potential shift.

Wisconsin: A Crowded Democratic Field Meets a Clear Republican Front‑runner

Wisconsin’s gubernatorial race is shaping up to be one of the most contentious of the cycle. On the Democratic side, at least seven notable candidates are vying for the nomination, including state Rep. Francesca Hong, a democratic socialist, and former Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes, who lost a Senate bid four years ago. The primary grew even more turbulent when Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez withdrew after discovering her campaign was short hundreds of thousands of dollars. Nine days after suspending his own bid, County Executive David Crowley re‑entered the race, armed with an endorsement from Governor Tony Evers.

Republicans, meanwhile, have coalesced around U.S. House Representative Tom Tiffany, who has secured former President Donald Trump’s backing and reported $3 million in campaign cash. Wisconsin’s political history makes it a classic swing state: it has voted for both presidential and Senate nominees from either party in recent cycles, and its governorship has flipped between Republicans and Democrats during the Trump era. With both parties still sorting out their nominees, the race is currently rated a toss‑up.

Iowa: An Independent‑Minded Democrat Holds a Narrow Lead

In Iowa, the governor’s race is already generating buzz. Democratic State Auditor Rob Sand—who has described himself as “not a fan of either party”—leads the field with 53 percent support in the latest Fox News Poll, outpacing Republican challenger Zach Lahn by nine points. Lahn, a local farmer, emerged as a surprise winner of the Republican primary after initially receiving Trump’s endorsement of another candidate; the former president later threw his support behind Lahn, helping him solidify the GOP base.

Lahn’s stance on the state’s six‑week abortion ban and his recent move from Kansas could prove to be electoral liabilities, while Sand’s fundraising operation—drawing contributions from a broader base of local donors—gives him a financial edge. Though the Senate race in Iowa remains a toss‑up, the governor’s contest begins with Sand holding a modest but steady lead.

Nevada: An Incumbent Governor Seeks Re‑election Amid Shifting Latino Sentiment

Nevada’s gubernatorial contest pits Republican incumbent Joe Lombardo against Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford. Lombardo is highlighting his administration’s achievements: cutting business regulation, reducing crime and launching new housing initiatives aimed at working‑class Nevadans. Ford, however, argues that affordability concerns and immigration issues should be laid at the feet of President Trump, whose approval rating among Nevada’s Hispanic voters has dipped sharply—69 percent expressed disapproval in a June Fox News survey.

Lombardo’s 2022 victory demonstrated that the state’s Latino electorate was drifting rightward, but recent polling suggests that trend may be softening. The race is expected to be close and expensive, with both parties pouring resources into a state that could tip either way in November.

Kansas: An Open Seat Draws a crowded Field

Kansas presents Republicans with their best opportunity to flip a governor’s office this year. Democratic Governor Laura Kelly, who cannot seek a third term, leaves behind a rare Democratic presence in a state that Trump won by double digits in 2024. Leading Democratic hopefuls are state Senators Cindy Holscher and Ethan Corson, both centering their campaigns on kitchen‑table affordability issues.

The Republican side features seven candidates, among them Senate President Ty Masterson, who secured Trump’s endorsement in May. A standout topic of debate is the $4 billion deal to lure the Kansas City Chiefs across the state line—a move Masterson and Corson support, while some Democrats have labeled it a “scam.” Without the advantage of incumbency, Democrats face an uphill battle in a state that historically leans Republican. The contest is currently viewed as Lean R.

Oregon: A Historically Blue State Finds Itself in a Competitive Fight

In the Pacific Northwest, incumbent Democratic Governor Tina Kotek is confronting a tighter re‑election race than her party’s historic dominance would suggest. Oregon hasn’t elected a Republican governor since 1982, and backed Vice President Kamala Harris by 14 points in the last presidential contest. However, Kotek’s record is under scrutiny: local reports indicate the governor is “far short of her goal of 36,000 new units per year” for housing, and the state’s education rankings rank among the nation’s worst.

Republican state Senator Christine Drazan, who nearly unseated Kotek in 2022—falling just 3.5 points short despite a third‑party candidate in the mix—has seized on these frustrations. While partisan loyalty should favor the Democrats, the race is anticipated to be more contentious than usual, prompting both sides to gear up for a vigorous campaign.

Outlook: A Pivotal Cycle for State Leadership

The upcoming midterms will not only decide control of Congress but also reshape the map of gubernatorial power. With the balance of governorships hanging in the balance, each race carries implications for policy方向, electoral momentum and the parties’ strategies heading into 2026. From the crowded primaries in Wisconsin to the high‑stakes contests in Nevada and Kansas, voters across the country are set to render their verdict on the direction of their states—and, by extension, the nation.