US intel warns Russia could launch limited attack on NATO ally in effort to fragment organization: report
U.S. Intelligence: Russia Could Target a NATO Member Within Years to Test Alliance Unity
A new U.S. intelligence assessment warns that Russian President Vladimir Putin may move against a NATO country as soon as this fall or within the next several years, aiming to fracture the Western military alliance and probe whether Article 5 — the alliance's collective defense pledge — still holds.
According to a Wall Street Journal report, U.S. intelligence had previously concluded that Putin would not attack a NATO member while Russia's war in Ukraine continued. That assumption is shifting. As Ukraine regains ground and Russia's battlefield position weakens, officials say Putin is searching for a victory and looking to test NATO's resolve. Recent incidents, including a drone that struck a Romanian apartment building in May and cruise missiles that crashed into Polish territory late last month, are being read as part of that pattern of probing the alliance.
The assessment suggests any attack would likely be limited in scope. Options range from cyber operations to a small-scale land incursion, with the Baltic states and Poland identified as the most probable focal points. A full-scale land invasion is considered the least likely option because it would almost certainly trigger Article 5, which holds that an armed attack against one NATO member is an attack against all. A cyberattack, by contrast, could fall into a gray zone, leaving the alliance's response uncertain.
Heather Conley, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, said the broader question is how the United States would react if Russia pushed past NATO's red line. "It has always been a goal [of Russia's] to challenge the credibility of NATO and to separate the United States from its allies," Conley told the Journal. She added that NATO has long struggled with how to respond to actions that fall just short of triggering Article 5. "This has always been NATO's challenge to respond to a sub-Article 5 attack, and it's been very true that to this point, NATO allies have preferred not to escalate," she said.
The intelligence update comes as some U.S. officials and outside analysts have raised concerns that American munitions stockpiles have been strained by arms shipments to Ukraine and by U.S. military involvement in Iran. Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell pushed back on those claims. "We have everything required to strike at the time and place of the president's choosing," Parnell told the Journal. "Across multiple combatant commands, we have already executed successful operations while maintaining a deep, ready arsenal to defend our people and our interests. Any adversary who confuses media noise with American weakness will discover the truth the hard way."
NATO spokesperson Col. Martin O'Donnell said the alliance is preparing for a range of scenarios. "We are always thinking through and preparing for any number of scenarios. NATO is watching, and we are ready to deter and defend as necessary, which we continue to demonstrate," he told the Journal. NATO did not immediately respond to a request for comment from Fox News Digital.
The assessment does not identify a specific country as a likely target but underscores growing concern in Washington and European capitals that Putin may test the alliance's limits as the war in Ukraine grinds on.